Abstract:
The movie industry is characterized with its unpredictability in success and failure. Predicting
revenue of a particular movie has intrigued industry tycoons as well as scholar as a challenging
problem. The cinema acts not only as a expressive artistic medium, but also serves as large scale
industry that impact on the economy However some foreign scholars revealed that there are
methodologies to forecast future revenue of the movies. Film revenue forecasting has been studied
in variety of contexts ranging form easthetics economics, management to statistic and psychology.
In this study author examines whether movie revenue can be predicted by using determinants like
criticism, budget, propaganda directors creativity, star power and copies released to theaters. All
the films screened in 2012 were selected, and collected data related to them. The number of copies
released to theaters, propaganda expenditures and budgets were collected. Star power of 2012 film
actors and actresses, were converted into mathematical figures. Also a scholarly panel was
appointed to give grades to those stars and resultant figures were used for final calculating. Same
process was used when calculating directors creativity. To calculate propaganda expenditure,
financial figures as well as other scenarios like Contar deals, free interviews were used. sing
regression model author founds that there is a correlation between revenue and those six
determinants. In conclusion it can be said that using these determinants, movie revenue can be
predicted. However this study only test six determinants, and there are some important
determinants to be tested. The results can be further improved by incorporating more determinants
and larger sample size in future studies.
