Abstract:
Process of enhancing testing-capacity regarding COVID-19 is a topic of interest. This task of enhancing
is constrained by socio-economic background of a country either in favorable or unfavorable ways.
In this paper, we investigate timing of enhancing testing-capacity as an optimal problem, where the
enhancement is quantified via number of tests as an instant measure and recovered portion as a
long-term measure. The proposed work is structured analogous to an optimal machine replacement
model based on a non-linear integral equation. Overall model is partially identifiable and compatible
parameter estimations are carried out for a specific case study covering an early stage scenario.
In addition, scenario development criteria on demand and effort for enhancing testing-capacity are
introduced for predictions. In one numerical experiment, it is observed that frequency of enhancing
testing-capacity starts decreasing after two increments indicating a favorable direction amidst effort
constraints.
