Abstract:
Renowned as the world's fastest growing vector borne disease, dengue has become one
of the major health issues in Sri Lanka leading to an alarming concern due to recent
outbreaks throughout the country. Despite the immense efforts taken by the relevant
authorities to reduce the rate of mortality, the average number of dengue cases recorded
in each year remains around 30,000-35,000 without being changed significantly over time
in Sri Lanka. Investigation of the trends in spatial and temporal distribution patterns of
dengue is often treasured in the drafting and implementation of management/action plans
to ensure effective management of dengue epidemics at regional scale. Thus, a statistical
and geo informatics based analysis of the recent trends in dengue distribution was carried
out to identify spatial and temporal trends in distribution patterns of Dengue in the Akurana
Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area. Monthly records of reported dengue cases from 2010
to 2014 of the Akurana MOH area were obtained and were subjected to a scatter plot
analysis in MINITAB (version 14.12.0) to identify the temporal patterns in the recorded
dengue cases. Spatial maps of the recorded dengue case distribution in each GND for
each month and for the whole study period were prepared by using Arc GIS 10.1. The
spatial and temporal variations of dengue outbreak distribution within the Akurana MOH (at
GND level) were analyzed to identify the recent trends in dengue incidence. Akurana,
Bulugahathenna, Dippitiya, Dunuwila, Konakalagala and Neeralla localities could be
identified as areas with relatively high risk to dengue outbreaks throughout the study period,
while localities such as Balakanduwa, Delgasgoda, Delgasthenna, Malgamandeniya,
Marahela, Palleweliketiya and Udawelikatiya emerged as areas with low risk. As suggested
by the results of the paired-Chi square test [>Χ2 (30, 0.95) = 43.773], the emergence of dengue
outbreaks indicated a significantly declining trend of recorded dengue cases in most of the
GNDs (Aswadduma, Delgasgoda, Kurugoda, Malgamandeniya, Palleweliketiya and
Walahena etc.) during the recent years. The evaluation of the trends in temporal and spatial
distribution of dengue outbreaks at the localized level, could be recommended as a useful
tool in the planning and implementation of action plans to control the rise of dengue, while
evaluating the efficacy of already implemented control measures at regional scale
