Abstract:
This study aims to examine the price behavior of several key types of marine fish consumed by Sri Lankans which are commonly available in the Colombo fish market using time series econometric modeling techniques. It is based on the claim that fish prices have increased overtime and are frequently subjected to price fluctuations. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models in particular were employed to find a parsimonious time series model for better forecasts. The outcome of analysis revealed that certain higher order SARIMA models were able to parsimoniously track the dynamic behavior of real fish prices with acceptably accurate forecasts. Although the nominal fish prices have increased over time, real prices were steady, and seasonal patterns in real price changes were found to occur, with higher prices observed in middle months of the year. Results show that there is an increasing trend in nominal prices but not in real prices. Therefore, the apparent increasing trend in nominal fish prices may be governed largely by rising inflation in the country rather than by issues inherent to the fish industry.
